tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192194.post113979997427162629..comments2023-06-05T12:15:30.783+01:00Comments on East Ethnia: Not the only one who shakes his headUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192194.post-1139832929133458152006-02-13T12:15:00.000+00:002006-02-13T12:15:00.000+00:00Esta, I think that this is the impression the SRS ...Esta, I think that this is the impression the SRS has ben trying to create under Nikolic, that they are not so different from the other parties and that the worst thing about them is that they may be corrupt. Nikolic can't always pull it off, sometimes he goes back to his old habits, like trying to arrange a new war just now. But then the whole business is helped along by people from the "respectable" parties showing that they do not think so differently. <BR/><BR/>Not very reassuring, but I expect we will have a chance to find out what might happen if they get into power. A not very bold prediction: if it happens, then like every other government, they will lose a lot of support within a year or so.Eric Gordyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08743744653177736119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192194.post-1139832099712283092006-02-13T12:01:00.000+00:002006-02-13T12:01:00.000+00:00Blah Blah blah. The Radicals are full of shit, if ...Blah Blah blah. The Radicals are full of shit, if they actually get into power they'll be just like DS and DSS, with a bit of fiery rhetoric to try to keep their supporters. The government doesn't actually run Serbia, they just do what the EU/IMF/US tell them to. Just look at Koštunica, as soon as he got into power all those guys were off to the Hague, despite all the promises that got him in ;)Estavistihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07573346090105873934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192194.post-1139827503145888502006-02-13T10:45:00.000+00:002006-02-13T10:45:00.000+00:00Back when this government was elected (and can you...Back when this government was elected (and can you believe they've lasted almost two years?) the numbers went like this:<BR/><BR/>Radicals 81 seats <BR/>DSS 53 seats <BR/>Socialists 22 seats <BR/><BR/>Total 156 seats out of 250<BR/><BR/>I'm sure those numbers have shifted, but I doubt they've shifted by much.<BR/><BR/>Actually, if Kostunica hops into bet with SRS, they could throw the Socialists overboard and still rule. <BR/><BR/>Will he? Well, losing Kosovo will give him the perfect excuse. And he'll probably be desperate to put off the next election, since the polls show DSS will take some serious damage.<BR/><BR/>I still have trouble believing it, though. Kostunica is stubborn and rather dopey, but he despises the Radicals, and he knows that he'll instantly make Serbia an international pariah again if he brings them into government.<BR/><BR/>Possible, but IMO not at all likely.<BR/><BR/>More probable scenario: gov't collapses, new elections, Radicals win around 40%, nobody else gets as much as 25%, and it becomes impossible to form a government without them.<BR/><BR/>Kosovo could cause this, no question. Very much depends on how it's finessed.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Doug M.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192194.post-1139801725212859232006-02-13T03:35:00.000+00:002006-02-13T03:35:00.000+00:00You can never predict the future, but one scenario...You can never predict the future, but one scenario for a majority government might be: <BR/><BR/>SRS - 30%<BR/>DSS - 15%<BR/>SPS - 5%<BR/><BR/>That would be a fairly strong coalition, and disturbing!Eric Gordyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08743744653177736119noreply@blogger.com