GONG: First unofficial Croatian election results

As reported by Index, here are the first unofficial election results released by the nongovernmental organisation GONG, on the basis of 4% of polling places. The estimated result is given, followed by the estimated margin of error in the results.

Stjepan Mesić 51,41 +/- 1,88 %
Boris Mikšić 18,37 +/- 1%
Jadranka Kosor 18,2 +/- 1,17 %
Đurđa Adlešić 2,72 +/- 0,36 %
Slaven Letica 2,62 +/- 0,19 %
Ljubo Ćesić 1,90 +/- 0,25 %
Ivić Pašalić 1,65+/- 0,23 %
Anto Kovačević 0,87 +/- 0,14 %
Miroslav Blažević 0,78 +/- 0,08 %
Miroslav Rajh 0,75 +/- 0,07 %
Doris Košta 0,42 +/- 0,06 %
Mladen Kešer 0,33 +/- 0,1 %
Tomislav Petrak 0,12 +/- 0,03 %

Update: I see that Drax is also publishing results as they come in, with commentary as well. So I will not update results, go to Drax or Index instead.

Update2: GONG's projections are being updated every 30 minutes at Index, until midnight (that's 6PM in Bostonian). They still show Mesic above 50% and Miksic in second, but the current article does not say how much larger the uzorak is than the one for the results above. My wild guess: the vote from Hercegovina will not help HDZ move up to second place, and there will not be a second round. But take this for what it is worth, time will tell.

Update3: Well, that was fast! If this report from Index is correct (it cites a leak from the state election commission), then the prediction I made in the last update was wrong on both counts. As Yogi Berra once said, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."

Update4: The state election commission is reporting that Mesic leads with 49.03%, and Kosor has captured second place with 20.18%, edging out Miksic 17.80%. The remaining ten candidates are all below 3%. On 16 January, a second round will be held.

Update5: Just to note that the far right is the big loser in this election. The candidate of HSLS, Đurđa Adlešić, got 2.69%. Slaven Letica, who was once a mild-mannered medical sociologist but wants to be a national-populist when he grows up, got 2.60%. Ljubo Ćesić Rojs, about whom the less said the better, got 1.85%, while ex-hohštapler Ivić Pašalić got 1.82%. Even if all of their supporters vote for HDZ, it will not be enough to defeat Mesić.


Anonymous said...

Somehow it seems to me, Jadranka Kosor would not be in the second round were it not for my dear countrymen from Herzegovina. Watching the news last night I had the impretion every living Croat in Herzegovina voted. For HDZ, zna se!!!

Eric Gordy said...

Yes, it turns out you were right. She was behind until the end, and didn't pull ahead until around midnight. So although I haven't seen raw figures, it is probably reasonable to suggest that it was the votes that were counted last (from outside of HR) that helped her the most.

Eric Gordy said...

Quod, HDZ-BH thinks that they pulled Kosor through too. This was sent to me by Andras Riedlmayer:

3 January 2005

Bosnian HDZ thanks voters for helping Kosor enter second round

  MOSTAR, Jan 3 (Hina) - The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) of
Bosnia-Herzegovina has said that HDZ candidate Jadranka Kosor
entered a second round of presidential election in Croatia thanks to
the support of the electorate in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

  The party issued a brief statement on Monday thanking all Bosnian voters
who cast their ballots for the HDZ candidate in Sunday's presidential
election in Croatia.