As reported by Index, here are the first unofficial election results released by the nongovernmental organisation GONG, on the basis of 4% of polling places. The estimated result is given, followed by the estimated margin of error in the results.
Stjepan Mesić 51,41 +/- 1,88 %
Boris Mikšić 18,37 +/- 1%
Jadranka Kosor 18,2 +/- 1,17 %
Đurđa Adlešić 2,72 +/- 0,36 %
Slaven Letica 2,62 +/- 0,19 %
Ljubo Ćesić 1,90 +/- 0,25 %
Ivić Pašalić 1,65+/- 0,23 %
Anto Kovačević 0,87 +/- 0,14 %
Miroslav Blažević 0,78 +/- 0,08 %
Miroslav Rajh 0,75 +/- 0,07 %
Doris Košta 0,42 +/- 0,06 %
Mladen Kešer 0,33 +/- 0,1 %
Tomislav Petrak 0,12 +/- 0,03 %
Update: I see that Drax is also publishing results as they come in, with commentary as well. So I will not update results, go to Drax or Index instead.
Update2: GONG's projections are being updated every 30 minutes at Index, until midnight (that's 6PM in Bostonian). They still show Mesic above 50% and Miksic in second, but the current article does not say how much larger the uzorak is than the one for the results above. My wild guess: the vote from Hercegovina will not help HDZ move up to second place, and there will not be a second round. But take this for what it is worth, time will tell.
Update3: Well, that was fast! If this report from Index is correct (it cites a leak from the state election commission), then the prediction I made in the last update was wrong on both counts. As Yogi Berra once said, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
Update4: The state election commission is reporting that Mesic leads with 49.03%, and Kosor has captured second place with 20.18%, edging out Miksic 17.80%. The remaining ten candidates are all below 3%. On 16 January, a second round will be held.
Update5: Just to note that the far right is the big loser in this election. The candidate of HSLS, Đurđa Adlešić, got 2.69%. Slaven Letica, who was once a mild-mannered medical sociologist but wants to be a national-populist when he grows up, got 2.60%. Ljubo Ćesić Rojs, about whom the less said the better, got 1.85%, while ex-hohštapler Ivić Pašalić got 1.82%. Even if all of their supporters vote for HDZ, it will not be enough to defeat Mesić.