Magical realism

A friend sent along this text, which seems to be a little bit about Kosovo, with the message: "Ovo je op-ed piece iz danasnje Politike. Slobodan Antonić je profesor sociologije na Filozofskom fakultetu u Beogradu. "Politika" znate sta je. U Minhenu 1937. nikad niste bili, ali evo prilike za ekskurziju." There are also insights into contemporary problems of skiing and parking. Oh, and sex. After a fashion.

Иза огледала
ЈЕДНОГА ДАНА!

Отварање коверте са Ахтисаријевим планом у Србији је било праћено једном од најжешћих медијских кампања. По сто пута, из различитих уста и на различите начине, могли смо чути три ствари. Прво, да треба бити реалистичан, а реалност је таква каква јесте и ту се ништа не може. Друго, да морамо гледати оно од чега живимо, а да емоције и митове заборавимо, како нам се не би поновиле страшне деведесете. И треће, да су наши грађани спремни да иду даље, али авај, има неких политичара који покушавају да злоупотребе питање Косова, па подбуњују народ, као некада Милошевић.

Сви ови разлози нису сасвим неразборити и свакако да јавност има право да их чује. Али занимљиво је да сте на поједином медијима могли чути само њих, и више ниједне друге. Када човек гледа Б 92 или чита Блиц не може а да се не запита: „Добро, како им само не досади? Све једно те исто. Што бар мало не прошарају, онако, реда ради”?

Ипак, не може се спорити да је у тој унисоности било и лепих примера личне креативности. Мени се, рецимо, највише допао наступ једног од припадника ,,златне” београдске елите на Б 92. Он је хладнокрвно образлагао све по уобичајеном репертoару: „Морамо бити реалистични”, „наши грађани највише брину о стандарду”, „Косово је ионако изгубио Милошевић”, бла, бла... Али, када му је новинар поставио питање могуће поделе Косова, одједном се узбудио. „Не подела, али корекција граница свакако”! Јер, замислите ужаса, косовска граница иде до врха Копаоника! Тако би неки неопрезнији скијаш могао да се нађе очи у очи са „мултиетничком” и „мултикултурном” полицијом Косова. Морам рећи да сам се одмах и ја потресао. Ма, ко сме да квари одмор нашој НВО елити! Него, да ми лепо трампимо Прешевску долину и још цело Врање за те скијашке стазе. У тој ствари никако не смемо бити реалистички! У тој ствари не треба да гледамо од чега живимо! У тој ствари није Косово изгубљено још 1999!

Да, доиста ми је драг тај аргумент из реалистичности. Али, пробајте да неком од припадника наше НВО елите заузмете паркинг место. Једно једино паркинг место. Кажем једно, јер се ових дана челник неке од тих НВО похвалио да му је годишњи буџет 1,1 милиона евра, да има 27 запослених и 36 сталних хонорараца. За толики буџет и за толико запослених заиста треба много паркинг места. Али, замислите да сте му заузели само једно место. Шта мислите, колика је вероватноћа да вам каже: „Добро пријатељу, бићу реалистичан, шта је ту је, заборавимо прошлост, нема везе ко је први, нема везе шта је чије, пустимо знаке, пустимо право, остани где си и да заједно корачамо у европску будућност”! А колика је вероватноћа да вам каже: „Марш, бре! И ако се одмах не склониш, узећу дизалицу из кола да те научим памети”!

Да, баш волим тај аргумент из реалистичности. Не само у оној варијанти да „не може шут с рогатим” и да је нужно помирити се са јачим злом. Али, мој фаворит је ипак варијанта која гласи: „Ма какво зло, чим схватимо да тако и треба, биће нам лакше”! Јер, „то ионако није наше”, „ко је икада тамо био”, „за тим жале само попови и митомани”, „много су већи проблем редови пред страним амбасадама”, „тиме нам само чине услугу” итд. Али, када то наш НВО елитник говори, он заправо говори о себи. Док његова уста кажу „то ионако није наше”, његове очи одају да мисли „то није моје, баш ме брига”. Док његова уста кажу „ко је икада тамо био”, његове очи кажу „ја тамо никада нисам био, шта се мене то тиче”. Док његова уста кажу „за тим жале само попови и митомани” његове очи говоре „ја ионако мрзим попове, једна црква више или мање, свеједно ми је”. Док његова уста кажу „много су већи проблем редови пред страним амбасадама”, његове очи говоре „зар ја да чекам у реду због тог Косова, до врага с њим”! Он је изједначио „бити модеран”, са „мислити само на себе и мислити само на новац”. И сада покушава све нас да убеди да и ми треба да будемо „модерни”, па ћемо се добро осећати, као и он што се добро осећа.

Неко је већ отмицу Косова упоредио са силовањем. Силеџије су велике и јаке, несрећна девојка би још могла добити и батине ако се буде превише опирала и можда је стварно боље да се много не брани. Али, забога, како јој још поврх свега можете рећи: „Ма буди паметна, јесу силеџије, али богати су, утицајни, не смеш никако да поквариш своје односе са њима, не смеш се жалити. Мисли на своју будућност, мисли на то да треба сутра да постанеш део њиховог богатог и лепог друштва. Отплачи мало, па се врати. И насмеши се – као да ништа није било”! Да ли стварно може да буде – „као да ништа није било”? Је ли ви то озбиљно мислите са смешењем? Да момцима не падне на памет још који пут да се забаве на сличан начин? А шта тек да кажем о онима који на све то добацују несрећници: „Ма дај, сестро, немој да си конзервативна, момци ти само чине услугу, ти треба да си модерна, да уживаш у сексу, а нарочито треба да уживаш када се на теби испружи Главни Баџа, е онда нарочито мораш да дахћеш, стењеш и узвикујеш – То! То! Још! Још!”.

Да, Главни Баџа баш воли да је велики љубавник. Али, Србијо мила, ипак, не мораш због њега глумити. Слободно плачи. И најважније је да их све запамтиш. И оне који су се по теби ређали и оне који су навијали и добацивали. Јер, једнога дана...

Да, да. Једнога дана!

Политички аналитичар
Слободан Антонић

By this does German song abide

East Ethnia offers its congratulations to Dr Faust.

Essay competition

I'll just bet that among the people who read this blog there are some who might have something to submit to this essay competition. We want to publish the ten best pieces on the theme “Evaluating Intervention: Local perspectives on democracy-building in the Post-Yugoslav countries and territories.”

Update: The announcement that is posted is not the final version. I will link to the final version when it is up. The deadline will be 18 May.

Notes on prosecution

We finally saw the fine old Orson Welles film The Stranger. A war crimes prosecutor (played with a lot of enunciation by the great Edward G Robinson) inexplicably releases a major suspect (played by somebody who resembles Janez Drnovšek) without trial. The suspect leads him to a small town where the principal suspect (played with arrogant menace by the great Orson Welles) is hiding in plain sight, teaching history. The failure of witness protection is made painfully apparent in several instances, and Edward G Robinson has only a friendly high school student to help him reach the truth and apprehend the suspect. Everybody in town is unfamiliar with the purpose of prosecution and with criminal procedure. When the truth comes out, the suspect lays claim to a transcendent rationale, after which he is permitted to die without trial. The greatest menace is represented by the functioning of devices to measure time, to which everybody objects.

Prescient little film, that.

Austrian and Serbian greetings

Photos of the head of the Freedom Party Strache in Austria with a three fingered salute caused a big scandal over the last weeks. But not because he was thought to secretly sympathize with the Serbian cause, but as this has apparantly become a replacement for 'classic' Nazi greeting.

His response... well Angela Merkel does it too...

and so do many Serbs (which he failed to mention)

A realist's adventures in Bosnia

I don't usually comment on official statements since they tend to be so boring and predictable. But over the last week or so, one phrase has been shopped around so frequently that I feel compelled to comment. It appears to have been coined to explain the sheer waste of time the Schwarz-Schilling-era in Bosnia has been, and it is a variation on "establishing the reality of the situation in Bosnia."

I first heard it in a phone call with an OHR spokesperson last week. Then the High Rep used it (in local-language overlay) in a TV appearance. Couple days later I read it in the High Rep's weekly column. This is evidently the message the OHR wants to convey to those who think that Schwarz-Schilling has been gambling with the future of Bosnia:

In the course of the past year [and by not using the powers vested in the OHR], it has become possible to make an objective assessment of how well or how badly the country is doing and where the problems lie. And it is only by establishing the reality of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina that it is possible to develop the mechanisms to assist this country on the road to Euro-Atlantic integration.
Source: www.ohr.int

This deserves a fuller rebuke since it encapsulates everything that is wrong with the current HR, but let me point out just the obvious. Schwarz-Schilling was put in place by the consortium overseeing peace implementation in Bosnia (PIC) because the Germans insisted on getting a German HR, because no other German was available, because it was felt that his experience as a mediator in Bosnia qualified him for the job, and because the PIC had realized that jumping on the bandwagon of "local ownership" might provide an easy way out of a situation that already then was clearly deteriorating. Schwarz-Schilling believed in the idea -- and believe it or not, entire think-tanks have been built on nothing else -- that the "international community" and especially OHR were the key problem preventing Bosnia from reforming. This view was disputed by many thoughtful observers inside and outside Bosnia, people who were appalled by the intellectual thinness of the argument.

One year later, Schwarz-Schilling is conceding that they were right, and that the people he brought to Sarajevo as his closest advisers were wrong. To justify this enormous waste of time and other resources, he now talks about some "reality" that needed to be "established," and that could only be established by not doing anything for an entire year, which has completely undermined the authority of the office. (Reports on OHR's views now frequently take fifth or sixth spot on national TV's main newscast since nobody thinks they're worth listening to.)

Was that really necessary?

Before you think that this may be in some way personally motivated (which it isn't, since I quite like Schwarz-Schilling as a person and think he's a decent chap who genuinely believed he was doing the right thing -- though hey, I could be wrong), let me also point out that the main blame for this clearly needs to go to the PIC, which after all subscribed to all this faddish nonsense about OHR being at the heart of the problem. The PIC now has one last chance to get it right in Bosnia, when it meets at the end of February. I do hope that some foreign ministry staff are doing overtime.

A brief blog silence

I am off for a trip to the lovely Ukraine, there will not be much posting, maybe not any, until this coming Monday.

Đelić intervju

At Davos, Loïc le Meur had a chat with Božidar Đelić. In English here, and in French here. Thanks to Blogowski and Viktor (who also has an analysis).

Bieber is back

After a break of several months, I am back blogging at bieber blog, but of course I will not stop writing once in a while here (if Eric let's me).

Dewey Cheatham and Howe

Being an ICTY indictee is good work if you can get it. Aside from the room and board, there are special benefits for those indictees who decide not to use the services of a qualified attorney of international reputation. The expenses of whatever defence are covered by the Tribunal, and the recipient of these funds can use and distribute these funds to the benefit of whom they choose. Given the discrepancy between average earnings in the countries of origin of the indictees and the fees received by international lawyers, a considerable amount of money could be at stake. But this may not be enough for every defendant, which is why Vojislav Šešelj is telling the tribunal that he needs 6.3 million, or Toma Nikolić will cut him off.

Curiouser

A loyal reader writes in to point out: if you go (sometime in the very near future, before the spot changes) to the popular website of the Mideast historian Juan Cole, and look at the right side of the page, you will find this lovely ad. It shows Vojislav Koštunica in front of a wall with an icon and a flag, fingering a ballot box with a come-hither expression on his face. The ad is right above another one promoting the candidacy of Barack Obama, and it features the following text:

The New Serbia

A young democracy, rich in tradition, with religious and press freedom.

A democratic Serbia is the key to stability in the Balkans, an inspiration to all in the region.

The New Serbia

An investment in democracy that's working

Read more

There are links in the text, but they all lead to the same not so exciting site: the place where the government puts out its English-language press releases (among the news items: 3,334 votes means that "31.5% of diaspora casts ballot"--that is rather a smaller diaspora than other folks, some of whom might know what the government is saying, claim). If Professor Cole's source code is to be believed (and why should it not?) this ad was purchased through Blogads for the modest price of $100, and the buyer was promised that it would be seen by 193,732 people, of the type targeted by the "Liberal Blog Advertising Network." It's interesting company for a government which is led, for another few weeks anyway, by a party which releases statements claiming that visits by European diplomats before an election "are impermissible and damage the normal life of the country."

Technorati: dss advertising blogs

CNN rewriting Bosnian geography

Tonight's main news show on Bosnia's national broadcaster was all excited about CNN's weather site. BHTV had a story couple nights ago about CNN putting Sarajevo under "Yugoslavia," a country that no longer exists. In the meantime, CNN has fixed the site. The result is to the left.

On the uses of SRS

My post-election wrapup has now been posted at Open Democracy. A little polemics, a little prediction, plenty to disagree with.

Technorati: serbia elections srs ds dss g17 ldp articles

Last-chance exit

In June last year, the consortium of interested parties overseeing the international peace mission in Bosnia, the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), decided that the Office of the High Representative should close in June 2007. It was entirely clear back then that the OHR under Christian Schwarz-Schilling would spend most of the remaining time dealing with its own phase-out rather than with the pressing issues confronting Bosnia (including police and public broadcasting reform, constitutional amendments, and the blocked process of inching closer to the EU).

Now, even the PIC seems to have recognized that its decision was premature; when its Steering Board meets in Brussels at the end of February, it is very likely to extend the OHR's mandate. (The decision had always been subject to review in February.) Another piece of news: according to today's Dnevni avaz, Schwarz-Schilling will be replaced, presumably by someone who's actually interested in using his office to achieve concrete results. For this situation, however, the PIC deserves as much blame as Schwarz-Schilling, whose views on the extensive powers of the OHR were after all well-known even before his appointment. (Avaz is not known for meticulous fact-checking, but I've now heard the same from more credible sources.)

Rumor has it that Schwarz-Schilling is about to make a statement to the effect that he would not serve beyond June.

The whole episode is embarrassing because it suggests that the PIC hadn't done its homework before appointing Schwarz-Schilling, or before taking the decision to phase out in June. It is also a blow to the idea, already rather thin intellectually, that the pull of European integration would on its own be strong enough for Bosnia's elites to bring their irreconcilable visions for the future closer together. Thanks to the PIC, Schwarz-Schilling's term in office has been a complete waste of time.

The number of the beast?

Somebody in the Ukraine is the 66,666th visitor to East Ethnia. For you, a picture of the Beast.

Technorati: blog dog lajos

SRS 81, DS 65, DSS 47, G17 19, SPS 1, LDP 15, SVM 3, LZS 2, URS 1, RP 1

We drove, she voted, we enjoyed. This was our first experience with consular voting. It turns out that the Serbian consulate is in a fairly spare seventh-floor office on East 45th Street in New York. They use a Verizon address for electronic correspondence. No big crowds, but there were people coming and going the entire time, and no big security, but one NYC cop lounging by the desk. Then the commission with the list (they had an incorrect address for Mrs Ethnia) and a young volunteer with that stuff they put on people's fingers. The contribution made to the survival of democracy, we proceeded to enjoy our weekend in New York.

The result, as it turned out, was probably about as good as could be expected, neither the best nor the worst. Open Democracy asked for my response, so I'll have a link to that when it comes out. One blogger who could always be counted on to disagree with me (in a good way, and accompanied by the sounds of Balkan hip hop) seems to be hanging up his blogging skates, but we can hope that turns out to be temporary. Meanwhile, Viktor might need some help drinking all the beer he will be getting.

Technorati: serbia elections new york blogging

Izborna tišina

I had been thinking of giving you a play-by-play of Sunday's elections, but instead the invitation to vote at the consulate that Mrs Ethnia got in the mail persuaded us to use the event as a (hardly necessary) excuse to spend the weekend in New York. I'll be back with analysis as quickly as I can, though.

Bajbuk

Biologist Bora Coturnix has been edutaining the world for a while with his blogging on science, politics, and the relations between the two. Now he is coming out with a new book he has edited, The Open Laboratory: The Best Writing on Science Blogs 2006. And he is collecting nominations for the 2007 edition. In the meantime, you can buy the book.

Technorati: science blogging coturnix books

Quotation of the day

From B92 news:

Analitičar Milan Nikolić kaže da političarima ne treba zamerati zbog ljubljenja beba. "To je dokaz da političari pokušavaju da se prikažu kao obična ljudska bića, što u suštini nisu", kaže on.

Technorati: babies politicians quote of the day

A week to election day

In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in Serbia a week from today, an assessment and some hesitant predictions. Making predictions is usually a foolish enterprise (if it is not obvious in advance what the result will be, then the only way a prediction can be correct is by chance), but why should that stop me?

As much as I am not fond of Mr Koštunica and his DSS, and even less of his coalition partners, they deserve credit for what has got to be the most skillful effort to transcend political conflicts and issues in a political campaign. Everything from the campaign slogans "Živela Srbija" (živela!) and "Narod najbolje zna" to the new year concert which appeared to bring together opposed social forces, in this case Ceca and a random selection of rokeri, succeeded in being both memorable and content-free. Although they will probably end up with a third or fourth place finish next week (there! a prediction!), they have given the media impression of being a party of power about which other parties talk. It is easy to agree with the assessment by Dragoljub Žarković that Mr Koštunica has assured his success by outperforming the very low expectations which people had of him.

For the most part the opposite has to be said about the party that stands to gain the most from the election, DS. They act like a party of power which runs in terror from the risk of saying anything that prevents them from being all things to all people, and to top it off is not in power. The move of naming their candidate for PM, former finance minister Božidar Đelić, might help them, in the sense that he is a figure who is respected by many, despised by few, and comes forward with a clear program that he has recently published. The announcement may have come too late to help them much, but DS has calculated, probably correctly, that their best hopes are fuelled by inertia and dissatisfaction with the current government.

A few of the parties are in the race mostly to save themselves from oblivion. A few of them (like G17) may succeed in this, and some (like SPO, SPS, and a few curiosities) will more likely fail. But the most interesting reemergence from oblivion has got to be the campaign of the Čedomir Jovanović vehicle LDP. Shut out of his previous party for his radicalism and overreaching and because of a reputation (whether it is deserved or not) for corruption, Mr Jovanović will most likely come out of this election at the head of a parliamentary delegation, and will certainly come out with recognition as a force to be reckoned with. A sign of his power was observable during my visit last month, when LDP posters were the most obvious and frequent targets of anticampaigners and vandals -- there is probably something to the principle that whoever is being attacked most is probably threatening somebody who ought to be threatened. Another sign was apparent last night at the new year celebration/election rally hosted by DSS, at which a discredited former pop idol in a hat he borrowed from Branimir Štulić dedicated an insulting song to the party leader. If the best attack is an accusation of being a drug addict coming from a drug addict, this is pretty close to a sign of having achieved untouchable status.

The biggest open question of the election, of course, is with how much power SRS will emerge. It remains popular for government officials and NGO types to use the threat that the extreme right may come to power in order to extract money and support from the internationals. This is still happening. But the SRS campaign has been strangely quiet. It may be that they are running low on resources and that their original campaign plan to capitalize on the suicide of the party leader was scuttled by Mr Šešelj's failure to comply. On the other hand, the greatest advances by SRS tend to take place under the radar. It is a matter for research whether what happens under the radar is the mobilization of dissatisfaction or the engagement of clandestine services. But I will go out on a limb here -- the only time SRS has been close to ruling has been when there was a dictator willing to put them into that position. Their supporters will turn out, as they always do, and provide them with enough representation to assure that they have access to the publicity for scandalmaking well into the future. But they will underperform expectations, and will never be close to forming a government by legal means just as they never have been before.

What does this all amount to? Probably not much, which is either a disappointment or an achievement in itself, depending on how you look at it. I am guessing that the next government will be an everyone-but-SRS coalition, and that DS will be slightly more influential and DSS slightly less influential.