And the competition begins ....

.... for the most vapid article about the arrest of Karadžić. The first entry is from Marcus Tanner, who gets the wife's name wrong and assures us that the whole business is all about Marcus Tanner.

Jezivost

Čovek koji je sve samo što nije i nikad neće ni biti gradonačelnik Beograda kaže da je hapšenje Karadžića "jeziva vest." A frajer poznaje jezive stvari.

Ej, pa sad

If the rumour reported by Blic is correct, Karadžić was arrested in Vračar! Of all places!

Initial observations

The arrest of Karadžić is of course a huge event, leaving just two major suspects (only one of whom is worth the trouble) still to be captured and tried. A few initial observations:

• It was announced that he was arrested, but not where. This matters in the sense that a lot of people have claimed for a long time either that they know where he is or that someone else does. The BBC report sazs that he was arrested "by Serbian security officers," which would suggest that it happened in Serbia.
• On the same say that Karadžić was arrested, Dinko Šakić died. Pravo stiže svakom govnu.
• The Tribunal had better not mess this one up because there are not many chances left.

More on the story as it develops, no doubt.

A couple more details, from B92: it happened in Serbia, and the Interior ministry had no part in it.

Also, we recommend the fantastic Indian place at the bottom of Muswell Hill.

You go out to dinner, things happen. Off to the Hague, Radovane.

Documentary film workshop!

Are you in or near London? Do you have an interest in people from eastern Europe and documentary film? I thought you did, and that you would therefore be interested in the London in Motion UCL Documentary Film Workshop to be held in November. The deadline for applications (form available at the site) is 1 September.

Ne zastareva

So it seems that somebody has caught up with 86-year old Peter Egner, resident of a retirement home in lovely Bellevue, Washington. According to the charges, Mr Egner, who came to the United States in 1960 and received citizenship in 1966, was a member of the Nazi security police in Belgrade between 1941 and 1943 where he acted as an interpreter during interrogations of prisoners and guarded transports of prisoners (at least) between two prison camps in the city. During the first nine months of the occupation, it is charged, he was a member of a unit that killed thousands of civilians, mostly by asphyxiation.

The suspect is not commenting and his lawyer says that the charges are vague.

A little bit more: the government has filed a case to revoke the old murderer's citizenship (here is the full text). Some guy says that he is a gentleman. While his neighbours seem to think that being a Nazi has something to do with privacy.

Thanks to AR for the charming photo.

Party like it's 1987

Bless the ultrarightists who call themselves leftists, they are outraged that SPS would join a government with DS. So now Hegel iz naših sokaka, Če da krade donacije od izbeglica, and Aca bivša faca have announced their intention of forming a new party. Mihajlo Marković rose out of his crypt to declare the new party's platform against "brutal trade, prostitution and unnatural acts," then scurried off in terror at the sunrise.

There is at least one set of rumours out there suggesting that they need not have bothered. According to this version of the near future, SPS will be out of all coalitions and LDP will be in. Or else -- get this! -- new elections, which DSS and SRS are hankering to lose while SPS is still uncertain whether it wants to lose now or later.

Deficient immunity

So a court in the Netherlands has ruled that the UN is protected by immunity in a case in which it was charged that the people the UN was obligated to protect were protected by nothing at all. The same principle, however, does not apply to the state of the Netherlands itself, so far.

Addition and subtraction

Serbia got its new government today. Think you can form a better one? Give it a try.

(Thanks to Nikola Jablanov)

Technical notes from all over

I guess I am not so much a client as a user of the Blogger service, since I do not pay them anything and they do not pay me anything. So this limits my ability to complain about their service. All the same, the new editing tool seems to be in the habit of eating my paragraph breaks. Do they taste nice?

It may seem that I spend a lot of time complaining here about agencies and companies that bother me (the Home Office, Defra, my local council, BT ....). This could lead to the impression that I am a grouchy old fellow, an impression that people who know me would certainly confirm.

All the same, in the interest of balance, a few of the providers of goods and services in the United Magical Kingdom who have pleased me:

• John Lewis: They deliver when they say they will, and do not charge extra for it. And when I got a defective product from them, they were there the next day to take it away and bring a new one.
• Riverford Organic: Say goodbye to depressing supermarket vegetables, order a nice box of veg from these folk instead. They come by once a week to bring it to you, and take back the box from last week to use again. The price is a little higher, but the quality is much better. And you don't have to carry anything.

There may be some more good ones out there.

You provide the prose poems

It could be a dismal enterprise to list all those things that have not changed. But among them is the tender attention ruling parties in Serbia always pay to the largest state-controlled newspaper, Politika, and to the largest state-controlled broadcast outlet, Radio Televizija Srbije (RTS). Both of these have taken beatings from competition, and consequently have weaker positions than they have had in the past. But Politika remains a semiofficial paper and RTS remains the only broadcaster which has access to resources for large-scale production (even if they use these resources poorly) and which is available everywhere. When Vojislav Koštunica became prime minister, he installed his journalistic admirer Ljiljana Smajlović as editor of Politika and his media advisor (media advisor to lots of folks, actually, and for a brief period minister of information for Slobodan Milošević) Aleksandar Tijanić as head of RTS.

Both Smajlović and Tijanić have some good things to show for their service. Smajlović engaged the much-admired designer Mirko Ilić to reconceive the look of Politika, and it is now more legible and more stylish than it was, with especially enjoyable graphics on Sundays. Under Tijanić RTS television looks a lot less haphazard and hackneyed, more like a professional TV outlet and less like the way a tech school dropout put onto video the hallucinations of a hatful of people to whom nobody can say "that's a bad idea."

And there are things that they failed to do. Smajlović cut short the path that Politika had begun back to respectable journalism. Times have changed, but you are as likely to find tendentious headlines and selective reporting in that paper as you were in the 1990s. She also handed out patronage in the form of columnist contracts to Koštunica's political supporters. Miroslav Lazanski? There. Slobodan Antonić? Him too. Đorđe Vukadinović? What a surprise. For good measure, the management board was packed with political supporters as well. Emir Kusturica was installed as its chair. Tijanić used RTS as a vehicle for personal promotion and the political promotion of his rotating cast of friends and business associates. So as much as the heads of these institutions polished their surfaces, the stuff underneath looked very much the way it did in the old days.

Now with a new government, new board members are heading to those media outlets. Tijanić and Smajlović are predicting, probably correctly, that they will be removed from their positions. But at the same time they are defending their positions using the rhetoric of "journalistic independence." Now the independence of media is a value that lots of folks for good reason would defend. In this case the rhetoric is in the wrong hands. The people using it did not come to assume their positions as independent journalists or because of their journalistic independence, but for precisely the opposite reason. In the second place, an important point is being missed: no media outlet is independent of its own managing board, which means that the problem is structural. Form the managing body of a media outlet with people appointed by political parties, the result will always be politically controlled media. Allow politicians to name the editors of media institutions, they will be anything but independent.

There might or might not be reason to imagine that the Cvetković-Daček government will appoint a higher class of lapdogs than its predecessors. What would really be interesting would be to see editorial independence practised as a general operating principle.

The Lajiad

Well, the family is after a long period reunited. And it took a while, but the one serious bureaucratic problem we anticipated in connection with arrival has been resolved. Here's how.

Mrs Ethnia and the Ethniette arrived Wednesday morning at 5 AM or so, I arrived to the fetching Heathrow airport to meet them, and at that point we were supposed to go to the Animal Reception Centre to pick up our long-suffering dog Lajoš (who appears to have been left without an Ethnian pseudonym; suggestions are welcome), who would be released after they finished doing whatever it is they do to helpless animals in sealed high-security zones.

This was to be the fruit of a long procedure to avoid quarantine in the UK, which is famously hostile to incoming animals. The procedure begins a year before the doggie is to enter the country. He gets certification and boosters for all of the vaccines he has received, and in an indignity meant to emulate the surveillance to which humans are subject at all times, a computer chip is shoved into his body. A blood sample is taken, and must be sent to the only laboratory in the country from which Defra will accept results (in the US, actually, there are two laboratories but the other is apparently only for dogs in active military service). A pile of papers must be gathered and certified by a veterinarian.

And then there is the travel itself. Lajoš must travel in crate that meets precise specifications, can only go on flights from a list provided by Defra, and is to be surrendered to the cargo carrier five hours before the flight. On arrival in London, he is to be taken in his crate directly to the Animal Reception Centre, where, their literature assures us, staff are on duty 24 hours to assure the health, safety and happiness of domestic animals and the people around them.

From Heathrow Terminal 4, which can be reached by tube, one can reach the Animal Reception Centre by car. If, like most people who live in central London, one does not have a car, the procedure is the following: one drags one's luggage past the point at which there are paved walks by the side of the road, and then drags the bags up some stairs to a path that runs through an overgrown meadow and leads to a narrow pavement bestride a six-lane highway. After tooling along that pavement for about 2 km, it is possible to see the building of the Animal Reception Centre, which bears a striking resemblance to the Medical Facility for the Criminally Insane outside the University of Massachusetts hospital in Worcester. On seeing the building, it becomes clear that it is on the other side of the six-lane highway and that there are no crossings. So the only thing to do is wait for a somewhat clear moment, then dash with suitcases and child in the hope of not making an involuntary appearance in tomorrow's Daily Mirror ("Stranded pooch after Ethnia family road rage squish"). Later we discovered that it is possible to take a bus from the terminal; the bus deposits you by a parking lot next to the cargo area about a mile further down the highway, which is also on the opposite side. Here there is a crossing, which leads to an unpaved strip on the other side where pedestrians are invited to slog through the muddy grass beside a shallow primordial pool which is shaped like an imitation of a river. 

Pedestrians who arrive at the entrance to the Animal Reception Centre are greeted by a sign telling them that pedestrian access is prohibited. After ignoring the sign they will reach a reasonably pleasant waiting room filled with sofas and piles upon piles of interior decorating magazines. On the walls are signed photos from celebrities whose animals have passed through those doors. Most of them I do not recognise, but there is the unctuous Richard Branson with two doggies and a signed portrait of a squat Elton John. There are also vending machines where one can buy a bag of crisps or a Yorkie bar (“not for girls!”). We are signed in and instructed that Lajoš should be delivered to us within the hour. 

But soon an agent appears with a problem: apparently in some obscure part of the guidelines we have been (or somebody has been) told that our Boston veterinarian's signature must be verified by the US Department of Agriculture. Since such a thing would not occur to any reasonable person and is not visible in the instructions, it was not done, and hence the Animal Reception Centre is not able to accept Lajoš's documents. The certificate will have to be issued by one of their vets. It is now 7 AM. Since the Animal Reception Centre works 24 hours a day doing nothing but processing animals, they naturally do not have veterinarians on staff (who are all these people, then?). A veterinarian drops by to visit twice a day, once at noon and once at 7 PM. We are advised to bring our bags home, and that somebody will phone us sometime after noon to tell us that our dog is ready to be picked up. Which we do. 

Around 1:00 we receive a call asking us to come back to the Animal Reception Centre with Lajoš's documents. Mrs Ethnia stays at home and the Ethniette and I head off, folder of documents in hand, to make the trek once again to distant Heathrow. It turns out that they needed to resolve some confusion as to whether the computer chip that was unceremoniously placed into Lajoš was placed on the day it was placed or on the day that its number was registered. We are able to resolve the confusion immediately. By this time, however, given the time it has taken for them to call us and the time it has taken to get back to the airport, the noon vet has left. The certificate cannot be issued until the 7 PM vet shows up. They kindly point out that our paid processing fee allows Lajoš to spend 48 hours enjoying their hospitality, and that we are perfectly free to return home and pick him up the following day, or even the day after. We are determined that our dog will not spend the night at their mercies, however tender. We tell them that we will be back at 8 PM. 

This leaves us with a good six hours to fill in some way or another. The time could be spent at Heathrow, revelling in the opportunity to pay £10 for beans on toast and to find out what abominations WH Smith has decided are “bestsellers.” We quickly dismiss this idea and instead arrange to meet up with Mrs Ethnia in the nearest proper neighbourhood I can think of. Which is how we came to spend our afternoon in Hounslow. 

Now, I have absolutely nothing against Hounslow, and in fact it seems like it is a perfectly fine place. There are many discount clothing and furniture stores, as well as some lovely outlets for electronic goods. There is a shop where everything costs a pound, and if we had been inspired we could have got a very good deal there on those metal balti dishes which are ideal for serving food that has to be hot at the table. There is also a quite good Lebanese restaurant, where the friendly staff served us a delicious dinner at a more than reasonable price. There is a bakery where they fill their cannolis with Nutella, an innovation that pleased the Ethniette a great deal. The only bad thing I can say about Hounslow is that the only two times I have been there in my life it was because of some mishap involving transportation that was expected to happen but did not because of bureaucracy, and that if this sort of mishap does not occur again, as I certainly hope, these will remain the only two times in my life I have been in Hounslow. It is entirely possible that this sentiment is misplaced and that it reflects poorly both on Hounslow and on me. 

In any case, our brief and unanticipated sojourn into Hounslow tourism completed, it was time to return to the inviting Heathrow cargo area. At around 9 PM we finally did receive Lajoš, who was happy and seemed no worse for wear despite his long imprisonment. By 10:30 PM he was off the tube and merrily sniffing the ground by the fast food stands where people wait for buses at Finsbury Park station. At 11 PM, a mere 15 hours after landing in a crate in the UK, he was at home enjoying the smells of Muswell Hill. 

Englezi: Lajoš has arrived in your country. One day he will rule you all.

Pa i u Ameriku

I am not certain whether or not it is the case that the new ambassador of Serbia in Washington will be Sonja Liht. The only person I have seen reporting it so far is Pera Luković, who does not like the idea (I disagree, but that is no reason not to give a link, I suppose). In any case, it is better than the idea I got when I saw the headline "Vratiti Kovačevića u SAD." It turns out that the person in question was not the very admirable but superannuated former ambassador but some criminal.

U Evropu, 200 na sat

I have no doubt that Ivan Gavrilović (where is he now?) and the Fanki Dži dancers will join East Ethnia in welcoming the statement by Austrian foreign minister Ursula Plassnik that it is time to "switch to turbo mode in Serbia’s European reform course." Obožavam tu brzinu. Thanks to AR.

The Slavoj Žižek prize for highest concentration of invented terminology

Unionists? Sovereignists? The national-democratic elite? Rentiers of the surroundings? Probably Professor Antonić is trying to alter perceptions about whom he is speaking for, but I will offer a delicious prize to anyone who can tell me what he is talking about.

A side note to NSPM: your readers, and especially the sovereignists among them, would like you to find a web host that does not bloom with a thousand pop-up adverts.

“No rights,” says she “without their duties, No claims on equals without cause.”

The Socialist International will be an oddly named beast indeed if it accepts genocidal parties of the far right as members.

Spodobe na okupu

A ponovo i na vlasti.

Service

Since the London transportation network is filled with people who are angry about the inadequate service they receive, its directors have found a solution: posters requesting that people that people not be angry about the inadequate service they receive.

Meanwhile, my local council in Haringey publishes a monthly magazine called Haringey People. In it one can see photos of the councillors wearing large shiny medals around their necks. The magazine must certainly provide hours of pleasure to that audience -- it must be out there -- that enjoys looking at photos of corpulent middle aged men in garish jewelry. It also appears to exhaust the council's reserves of competence.

A new, unstable, short-lived government

So it looks like they have done it after all. In a move many hail as some kind of victory, DS and SPS have agreed to alienate both their supporters and form a government together. Word is that the prime minister will be the current finance minster Mirko Cvetković, a compromise figure in every respect. As a "nonparty" person, he is more or less acceptable to everyone. As a nonentity, everyone believes they can control him. He may surprise people on that second count.

The new government is set to have 28 ministries, affirming the place of Serbia near the top of the world demographically in ministers per capita.

The good news about the government is that neither Vojislav Koštunica nor Velimir Ilić will be part of it. The bad news is that SPS will be, and once again a party with minor support will excercise inordinate power. What is uncertain is whether SPS will use the opportunity to demonstrate that it has the capacity the become a political party, and also whether DS will use the opportunity to demonstrate that it has the capacity the become a political party.

PS: Backstory? -- Here are journalists speculating in Politika that Tadić was compelled to choose Cvetković by party leaders and that his preference would have been .... Vuk Jeremić????? But how little does one have to respect (even) Tadić to imagine anyone, even him, seeing Vuk Jeremić in any position where something might depend on him?

War criminals: What are they good for?

Mr Župljanin has had a tough decade of it, if anyone is to judge by his lament. He says "we have never had any support in Serbia from the democratic authorities," if you can imagine that. And as for the democratic authorities? They couldn't liquidate him, they couldn't arrest him, they couldn't get past their amusement at Mr Lovre's personal ads, they just couldn't do much. Where would we be without Mr Župljanin, without his "enormous suffering and superhuman efforts," and without his self-pity? In a much less bemused world, that's where.

Bozza: "Response to a silly and hostile suggestion"

If you do not like living in London while it has a buffoon as its mayor, you may wish to look for a new home in the Caribbean. If you say the preceding, you may be encouraged to return to a former home in Australia, or at least to vacate a present place of employment. And if you like living in the United States either while it has a buffoon as its president or in anticipation of its having a nonbuffoon, you could be expected to pass something that looks like this test.

ZimbabPROFOR

With reference to the previously posted item, Morgan Tsvangirai is clearly not a reader of this blog, or he would know that he is looking for protection from the wrong source.

While you were away

Well, while I was away, actually. While I was moving to what I hope will become a reasonably permanent new home amongst the sushi bars of Muswell Hill, Owen (who will be known to readers of this site as a regular commenter) was keeping the world informed of the progress of the lawsuit by Hasan Nuhanović and members of the Mustafić family before a district court in the Netherlands.

The plaintiffs are suing the Dutch state for the failure of its military forces, which were present in the area as members of UNPROFOR, to protect their relatives during the Srebrenica genocide in 1995. Rizo Mustafić, Ibro Nuhanović, Nasiha Nuhanović and Muhamed Nuhanović sought protection at the UN military base in Potočari, but were soon afterward delivered to the Bosnian Serb forces by the members of the Dutch military who were bound to protect them. The lawsuit seeks to establish that the military forces are guilty of gross negligence of their duty to protect civilians, and that this was a result of state policy which placed emphasis on the safety of soldiers at the expense of the obligation to protect civilians.

If you care for 198 pages of pleading, you can dowload the writ of summons (translated into English) at the plaintiff's firm's web site. It is a PDF, and since they are lawyers they have a little shrinkwrap agreement for you to click before you can get to it. Or you can listen to an interview with the lead lawyer by CBC, followed by Ramush Thakur's comments on the responsibility to protect.

Paul Vallely sets out several of the issues in the case for The Independent. Plaintiff Nuhanović and his lawyer set out their case to Reuters in an interview. Attorney Liesbeth Zegveld (bio) gives the theory of the case with admirable succinctness to the BBC. Some unexpected uncertainty came about just as hearings were about to begin when the judge who had been overseeing the case since 2005 was removed from the case without explanation.

A decision is expected in September.

Errata: See the comments for an important correction.

Holidays in the sun

If you decide to take your sun and fun in lovely Priština, then Sophie Middlemiss suggests, helpfully, in the Guardian that "the most authentic sleeping experience you'll have is at the family home of a former university professor." The suggestion box is still open for people who prefer an inauthentic sleeping experience.

Of kings and, well

Among the remembrances of Šaban Bajramović, add this obituary by John Lusk in the Independent. But better still: a long remembrance by Ljubomir Živkov, with additions by Zoran Živković and Dragan Kremer, in Vreme. And at Global Voices, Elia Varela Serra has posted a memorial video.

With one great person having left Niš, a more dubious one says he has forgiven the people he robbed, is an intellectual looking forward, and is ready to return. But we are not aware that anybody wants him back.

Your intelligence agencies at work

They are apparently leaving top secret folders on the seats of trains. While this is being done by daffy senior officials, the government is desperately trying to give itself the authority to hold people for 42 days until they can figure out whether they have done anything illegal or not. You feel ever so safe, don't you?

1 down, 3 to go

With the arrest of Stojan Župljanin announced today, that leaves three more people indicted for war crimes on the list to be arrested: Ratko Mladić, Radovan Karadžić, and Goran Hadžić. That will take care of one of the principal conditions for ratification of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement between the EU and Serbia. If the country succeeded in improving its wine and becoming a global tennis superpower, surely it can make that extra step. Samo napred!

Farewell, Šaban Bajramović

Šaban Bajramović: He deserted the army for love and formed his first band on Goli Otok. His music was gorgeous. In his life both his failures and successes were tremendous. The last few years saw him successfully reinventing his sound with the assistance of Cubismo, and more recently facing both health and material problems. He may have seemed indestructible to many. But today we have to say goodbye to the king of Roma music.

Link: This recent album review by Erika Borsos captures his quality nicely. And Toma Todorović has a fine remembrance in Politika.

Random observations from a visit to Belgrade

There will certainly be talk of nasty things (read:politics)from Belgrade in this blog. But just having returned today from a visit, some talk of less nasty things.

• A top graffito of the trip: The long-closed store by where the Cinema Odeon used to be, which for years has had the sign "Objekat u renoviranju" in the window. This time passing by, I noticed that somebody had crossed out "renoviranju" and written "raspadanju."
• Most tempting graffito: Somebody must have been well paid to paint "Sloboda za Caneta" on many prominent walls, because really, who cares? It took a tiny bit of effort and a good deal of laziness not to add "i Antona."
• A question for my culinarily savvy Belgrade friends: Is the restaurant in the Ruski dom any good? Will they serve me the stuff my grandmother used to make?
• Still the best thing about Belgrade (and every other city in the Balkans): Sitting in the outdoor cafes, which are everywhere.
• Smallest surprise: JAT (now called "Jat airways" or if you prefer "ejrvejz")? Still atrocious.
• Blogocentric moment: A fine evening spent drinking beer with Viktor (Belgrade 2.0) and Dejan (Anegdote), followed by pljeskavice in a wind tunnel.
• Most zaslužan građanin: Radovanović, the person behind the wines. Also, whoever is behind Greenet. Sidney Greenstreet, one supposes.
• Person and party inspiring the best and stupidest jokes: Krkobabić and PUPS.
• Biggest disappointment: Leaving at such a moment that it required missing the concert by Nick Cave.
• Greatest discovery: You'll hear about it. We have to get some grant applications together.
• Imperial moment: Across from where we live there used to be a perfectly okay bakery and a samoposluga about which the most you could say was that it was conveniently located. First the bakery was taken over by a fancy (and not at all bad) pizzeria called "Piazza Artigiani del gusto." Now they have taken over the samoposluga too. Is the name meant to imply that they will expand all the way to the pijaca?
• Nicest surprise: Seeing my high school friend, in town with her husband to do research.
• Greatest reassurance: Bukovače (always excellent) at kafana Proleće.

....or are you just happy to see me?

Photo: A gentleman named Perković performed at a big concert yesterday, during the course of which he did not try desperately to compensate for anything.

Znalac. Intelektualac. Sam je sebi stranac. Kao vanzemaljac.

Two intellectuals in the news today. Slobodan Antonić confronts the mysterious fact that intellectuals have a hard time liking the folks who hate them. And Kosta Čavoški remembers wistfully when his pals were powerful enough to keep his furniture untouched.

Tremblez, tyrans et vous perfides

A few people may have been surprised about the gesture yesterday on the part of SRS, DSS and SPS to declare that they have reached an agreement to form a city government for Belgrade. Obviously the symbolic importance of controlling the local government in a city where these parties have never won an election (not this time either) would be hard to overstate.

When symbols are in question, respond with symbols. DS strategist Dragoljub Mićunović rushed to remind people that mayors can be removed by the city assembly, which people in his party have known since 1997. And the head of the assembly hurried to choose a late date for constituting the new assembly: 14 July. The date should be meaningful to the SRS candidate for mayor Aleksandar Vučić (try his delicious squid recipe!), who as information secretary in the Milošević regime controlled the media outlet known to everyone at the time as "TV Bastille."

Udobnost fotelja

It is a fairly hot day in Belgrade, but this will not bother the heads of the DB parties, who will sit in the pleasant shade overlooking the fragrant animals of the Belgrade Zoo and sign an agreement to hand over the city government to SRS. If I had to guess, I would say that it will be a short-lived agreement and will fall apart as soon as the negotiations among the same parties to form a republican government fall apart. The whole business looks as though it was conceived by SPS to increase their blackmail capacity.

But it is entirely possible that SPS is overreaching. Their coalition partners are openly balking at joining forces with parties that want to quash the stabilisation agreement with the EU. And Milutin "pre roka" Mrkonjić has remembered what was no nice about having executive power in an illegal government: the opportunity to interfere with judicial power. So he wants amnesty for the criminals of the old regime as a condition for negotiating at all. A few more conditions like that, and it might be reasonable to expect no government to be formed and new elections to be called in the fall instead.

If new elections were to be called, there is a possibility that somebody might get a majority. There is less patience than ever for parties with a few seats behaving as though they are the majority. Another possibility is that SPS will finally have its long-awaited split, along the lines of the fractures that have become more than apparent in the last two weeks. DSS too.

Eurovision

I did not succeed in becoming interested in any of the songs, sorry. But a bunch of tourists came, they all seemed to enjoy themselves, and nobody was attacked by skinheads. So that has to count as a success.

Update: It seems some people were attacked after all.

What becomes of the brokenhearted?

Adieu, Vojislav Koštunica and Terry Wogan.

If Sv. Voja Neobavešteni actually does shuffle off, it will be a fight for control of DSS between people who want to preserve it as a centre-right party (like Aleksandar Popović, probably) and people who would always have been Radicals if only Radicals dressed better, like Slobodan Samardžić.

Whereas Terry Wogan would have to be replaced by Barry Gibb.

Krkowhat?

It was a fine film, and I have seen this clip used for many things, including the Dallas Cowboys and Senator Clinton. But thanks to Nedim for sending along the latest subtitling.

A tree fell on it

For better or worse (more likely than not better), Dragan Marković Palma has just squashed the hopes of Vojislav Koštunica and Vojislav Šešelj to form a government together. You never know where help is going to come from, do you?

Winston Napier

A moment of silence please for my friend and former colleague Winston Napier, whose wit and insight rivalled anybody's.

Here are remembrances from Aldon Lynn Nielsen and David Pugh.

Grist for the rumour mill

While there is wild speculation about the efforts to form an ultraright government with DSS and SRS in coalition, or as some media have it, a government for the security services and (presumably only some of) the tycoons, there is other speculation that the whole show is an effort by SPS to enhance the price it can demand for entering a coalition. This comes in the face of two bizarre events: Vojislav Šešelj sharing his deep thoughts from his cell in the Hague, and at the same time SPS chair Ivica Dačić repeating an image from a bygone era by heading off to Moscow to be told what he thinks (by whom?).

Still the guesses remain that SPS is buying time and has put conditions to SRS and DSS that they are not likely to accept, like control of both the Interior ministry and the intelligence agencies. SPS also has a deal-killer for both coalitions, complete rehabilitation of Slobodan Milošević, Mirjana Marković and their sundry criminal relatives. And there are claims that SPS is talking concretely with the DS-led coalition "For a European Serbia." What sorts of concrete things? Rumour is that DS is offering SPS the ministries for infrastructure, social services, and for Kosovo. Alongside these offers, it seems Vuk Drašković would like to be ambassador to the United States, and a few names are being mentioned as a possible prime minister: Gordana Matković, Bojan Pajtić and Mirko Cvetković (that last name surfaced early on, just after the elections, as a nonparty figure who might be acceptable to both DS and SPS). Another name that has been floated is that of Ivan Vujačić, who would need some work if Drašković were to head to Washington to replace him.

It is not clear who is feeding this information to the media or whether any of it is accurate. Assuming that the basic bit of speculation holds, and SPS is carrying on negotiations with DSS and SRS that are destined to fail, the question remains whether for DS, the price of forming a coalition with SPS might not be higher than the price of spending some time in opposition.

Translating: To the second page of the street

There is of course no substitute for a careful translation by an attentive and well informed human. The Google translation tool does not pretend to be such a substitute, and anyone who has used it knows that it is not one: the results are often comical. Nonetheless it is useful for getting a rough sense of something you might not be able to understand otherwise. And now you can get a rough sense in ten more languages -- Bulgarian, Croatian, Czech, Danish, Finnish, Hindi, Norwegian, Polish, Romanian and Swedish. So enjoy.

In which Eric learns a new bit of UK-ish academic jargon

"Lecture kebab" signifies a course for which you have general oversight, but in which most of the actual lecturing is done by a series of visitors.

Fun with DSS and SRS

Lose an election, get a mayor.

Update: Looks like that was either a false alarm or a report that came before its time.

A formula that adds up to 126

According to Blic, it is DS + the Hungarian Coalition + SPS. Blic is close to DS and may have inside information, and they promise more detail in tomorrow's edition (NB: Blic does not always make good on promises of this type). The article claims the deal will be announced when the final results are announced, which should be Thursday night at the latest.

Do I have an opinion on this possibility? I do indeed have several. They vary between two extremes -- the first of which is that it would be a shame to see criminals back in power again (moderating factor: they never left), and the second is that if SPS were ever to become a real political party with a programme that bears some resemblance to its name, this would be good for everyone.

Update: Tihomir Loza has some reflections on the subject too.

Un hombre sincero de donde crece la palma

More fun with electoral math: all eyes are on SPS seeking to set a juicy high price for itself. But probably three or four parliamentary seats will go to Koštunjavi's coalition partner Dragan Marković Palma. Any mother would love the fellow, who is well versed in the classical music canon and once used the podium of the parliament (when he was a deputy for Arkan's party) to ask the police to carry out a coup. But now as the mayor of an increasingly prosperous small city, he wants to attract investment, and that means Europe, and that means no room for Radicals. DS has already shown repeatedly how willing it is to swallow its pride and sacrifice its supporters' beliefs. Would they rather do it with the devil who never held a monopoly of power than the one that did?

Why were the polls wrong?

This is not the first time in Serbia, and is not likely to be the last, in which the election results differ fairly widely from the results of preelection surveys. What are some of the reasons this might be happening?

1. There are too few survey agencies. Not that I am wishing for more survey agencies (however convenient they might be in providing short-term employment for graduate students). But as a rule, one survey does not necessarily tell you much. It becomes possible to figure things out when you are able to make comparisons over time, or when you can compare surveys done by different agencies on the basis of their samples or methods of analysis. Patterns mean more than individual results mean.
   
2. The experience is not long enough. More elections means that pollsters have more familiarity with sources of error, in particular the patterns in the tendencies of people to misreport their own preferences or likelihood of voting. Although elections have been fairly frequent in the past few years, the experience of free elections only dates to December 2000. Patterns are not yet well established.
3. The political environment is volatile. In established democracies, most votes can be accounted for by regular patterns. Regions and populations have fairly consistent tendencies, and the factor that accounts for most voting behaviour is family tradition. This does not happen in environments where parties appear and disappear with some regularity and where the population changes.
4. Something is at stake. People do lie, and they lie more often about things that matter. Surveys on the brand of toothpaste people prefer will always get more accurate results than surveys on people's sexual or religious practices. In many established democracies where major parties converge toward the centre, political preference is more like toothpaste. In polarised societies it is more like religion and sex.
5. Things really do change. Survey agencies had a guess about how much the stabilisation agreement with the EU, signed two weeks before the election, might help DS. But the deal between Zastava and Fiat, and the visa concessions made by European governments, came in the final week. There wasn't time to account for them.
6. The media and communications landscape is not unified. Not everbody has a telephone. Younger people are likely to bypass the phone companies entirely and rely on mobiles. This has the effect of skewing samples. Also, not everybody has access to the same information media. Independent sources of information reach the urban entres more regularly than they reach the smaller towns and villages.

Having said all that, the surveys have not been so terribly far off, and in hindsight it may be possible to say that Strategic and Medium did catch a growth of support for DS in the final week. And anyone who has been following the primary contests in the US Democratic party knows that the pollsters have a fairly uneven record in those elections, too, so some lack of predictive power is not necessarily a unique characteristic of newer democracies. And after all, the fact that the world is not entirely predictable is probably on balance a good thing.

I suppose it beats "Keep on truckin'"

Your insightful BBC blogger ponders, "I wonder if a portrait of Tomislav Nikolic will ever stare down on my slumbering form when I visit Belgrade." Hey man, it's your business, put up any poster you want.

If at first you sort of succeed

The first projections from CeSID look fairly surprising: although the DS-led coalition and SRS appeared to be running about even in the preelection surveys, CeSID projects an advantage of over 10% for DS -- 103 seats to 76 for SRS. However, it will get more complicated. It takes 126 seats to form a government. DS can probably count on the 7 seats that minority parties are expected to get. LDP will have another 13, but DS wants to avoid dealing with them. So the coalition of DS + LDP + minorities gets at most 123 seats, three short of where they need to be.

That leaves two potential coalition partners who are at best undesirable: DSS with 30 seats and SPS with 21. SRS could form a weak government with their fellow recipients of DB largesse in SPS and DSS with 127 seats. Or DS could try to pick off one of them, at the cost of their capacity to govern.

Look for a lot of things that will be euphemistically called incentives that will be used to encourage individual deputies from SPS and DSS to switch their loyalties.

And in the meantime, be pleased that it will at least not be easy for SRS to return to power.

Results tonight, turnout high

As you no doubt know, voters in Serbia are electing a new parliament today. As in the presidential elections in January and February, CeSiD is reporting that turnout is very high and will perhaps be higher than ever. Follow their site for updates and for returns after the polling places close. Things to watch for:

1. Most of the preelection surveys show the DS-led coalition and SRS running about even. One of them will be the largest group in the new parliament but neither one will have a majority. This means that smaller parties will decide who forms the next government.
2. The biggest of the small parties is DSS (in coalition with NS). Surveys show them running somewhere between 12 and 14 percent, but I am tempted to think that this is overestimated, considering that in the last parliamentary election they got around 16 percent and in the meantime they have alienated many of their supporters. This may very well be wishful thinking on my part, however, and I could be carried away by the thought that the cold dead hand of Vojislav Koštunica might have no influence at all on upcoming events.
3. LDP may well be gaining in influence, although they undoubtedly have a fairly restricted base and hence an upper limit. A strong showing on their part would limit the capacity of Mr Tadić to form another coalition with parties who are fundamentally opposed to the wishes of most DS supporters.
4. The strange creature that uses the word "Socialist" in its name will probably get some meaningful number of seats in the parliament. Neither of the larger parties has the guts (and probably not the room to maneuvre either) to avoid a coalition with them. They are thieves, so will go with whoever offers them the most lucrative patronage.
5. Turnout in Vojvodina and Sandžak will determine whether the minority parties remain marginal or decide who forms the next government. Although it could be argued that their strongest interest is in supporting DS, they may have a stronger interest in being represented at all, and so could easily decide to give a margin of victory to SRS rather than sitting on the sidelines for an indeterminate period.

By law a government does not have to be formed quickly, so we could once again see a situation in which even when we know the results, we still do not know who won. But pleasant and unpleasant surprises are both always possible.

Update: Estimating again around 5PM, the turnout looks as though it might not be so high after all. Low turnout is a reason to be worried about the result.

Update2: If history is a guide, when turnout is low then fascinating things happen during the final hour of voting.

A blast from the past

In 1999, Zoran Đinđić and Slavoj Žižek had a chat. Đinđić is occasionally pretty interesting and Žižek is, well, symptomatic.

Irony

Today is the day of victory over fascism (and coincidentally, also the day of Europe). Will Sunday be the day of victory of fascism over us? Some guy gives his prediction for the New Statesman.

Update: Oh my goodness, there is an audio version too. With catastrophic pronunciation.

Društvo za unapređivanje napretka

Every day it seems there is a wondrous new scientific finding.

Kad je interesa nije sramote

The Radicals may say that they will not cooperate with the International Criminal Tribunal in the Hague. Inconsequential as that may seem given the present government's behaviour, it seems that the sentiment is not reciprocal: the Hague is happy to cooperate with them, lavishly. TV fans will doubtless remember Božidar Delić, the dashing general who chatted so frequently with Slobodan Milošević during the latter's trial. Now Blic is reporting that Delić had a lucrative gig hiring out his private archive to the Tribunal for the Haradinaj case, in which he was set to testify but withdrew for reasons the Tribunal spokesperson will not discuss. Killer quote:

The Milošević trial gave the best insight into the way the retired general works. According to sources at the Tribunal, he brought with him six hundred documents that he intended to present as evidence. That might not have been a problem during the trial, if the prosecution had not earlier requested from Belgrade the majority of just those documents. However, our government replied that they simply did not have those documents.

The article goes on to claim that former chief prosecutor Carla del Ponte, against the protests of the lead prosecutor in the case Geoffrey Nice, proposed dropping the entire set of charges related to Kosovo in order to assure a chance of peeking at Mr Delić's etchings. And there is a small effort to calculate how much Mr Delić was paid for his services.

In the likely event of an electoral disaster on Sunday, Božidar Delić is the probable candidate of SRS to take the position of Minister of Defence. From that position, he should have a better capacity to sell military documents to the people to whom he loudly claims to be opposed.

Update: Where was Ms del Ponte's friend on 25 March 1999?

In memoriam

Let's take a little break from the words of such thinkers as Tomislav Nikolić, Goran Davidović, Gordana Pop-Lazić, Vojislav Koštunica, Velimir Ilić and the rest of them. There are also, and have been in the lands of East Ethnia, fine thinkers who were also fine people and who have made fine interventions. Vreme features an obituary about one of them, Milan Kangrga, written by another one of them, Lino Veljak.

One hand washes the other

There should be no stopping Koštunica now that he has the endorsement of Goran Davidović.

Dragulji from the history of voting fraud

The year was 1968, the competition was Eurovision, and we do not necessarily have to believe the Guardian's assurance that this or any other song by Cliff Richard was "actually one of the better entries." But its second place finish may not be valid evidence one way or another. Because apparently what happened was that old Francisco Franco sent the representative of Televisión Española around Europe to funnel money to other television and publishing outlets, buying up series, arranging for concerts and promotions, the works. This infusion of cash translated into a phalange of votes for the Spanish entrant, a very serious (oh, let's quote the Guardian again: "trumpet-tootling, bodice-ripping") song by Massiel called "La la la." Of course there is a video. And another. Rock out to the vote-buying, boys n gals.

The future is so bright

Not all of the intellectuals are afraid of the return to power of the extreme right. The mediocre ones among them never lost their desire for position and publicity, and held a conference to outline their goals. The lucky attendees got to hear Kosta Čavoški fantasise about new wars people could be killed in. Easily outdone by years of living in soft and luxurious enemy territory, Srđan Trifković merely drooled over the prospect of being able to fire people from their jobs because of their ethnicity and imagined, should a traveller ever chance into the country, that it might be fun to abuse them.

A note to the nationalist right

You see, the problem with killing and threatening to kill everyone prominent who disagrees with you is that it does not remove all of the obstacles to your remaining in power. You also have to kill everyone who supports them, and regardless of how often you have tried that remains a majority of the people who voted in the last election. That would not be enough either: you would also have to kill everyone who despises you, and that would be most of the people in the world. And even if you should make progress there, you would still have to go after everyone who turns against you or knows anything about you.

Uranak

It is a while since East Ethnia has been with you! Your humble correspondent spent a while travelling, had surprising good luck in selling one much-loved Boston apartment, had even more surprising good luck in obtaining visas for Mrs Ethnia and the Ethniette (even Lajoš the wonder dog is more or less sorted), managed to hit one pleasant conference and give one nice little lecture, and spent much time in the comforting hands of airline corporations. Now it is back in London for exam season, gaping at political disasters (more about these elsewhere in future posts), and another exciting round of flat-hunting.

The Balkans have been up to much of the same, but we will tell you about that in more detail, won't we?

And if any of the dear readers here are members of the monstrosity known as Facebook, you may want to join the group of our friendly little Centre to find out about our upcoming events. Next week we will have a conference on new research organised by our friends at Goldsmiths, and soon we will have details up for the launch of the new book by Celia Hawkesworth on 22 May.

In the meantime, if any of you have leads on a nice but not too costly 2-3 bedroom rental on Muswell Hill, do let me know. And if any of you have clever ideas on how to run iTunes through my little mini stereo (it has a USB port!) you will earn my gratitude.

Back at cha.

Bogohuljenje

Rastko Nemanjić knew the difference between political power and faith, having traded one for the other. So that he would also have been able to recognise that when people try to trade in the latter for the former, the initial promise is probably instrumentalised and false.

A higher power once showed it was aware of this, when lightning struck the large concrete object that bears the name of Sveti Sava and no other relationship to him on the day of Sveti Sava in 1995. One might also expect the dean of the faculty of law to be aware of this, but one would be wrong.

Great moments in musical history

Thanks to the mysterious Ms. W.

Odlazak u noć

Although Politika ran a headline on Friday announcing "the government is stable until Monday," in fact it gave up the ghost on Saturday. Today the government will request the president to schedule parliamentary elections for 11 May. And not a moment too soon: as an old graffito said about Communism, it was "not dead, it just smelled that way." To review the initiatives of prime minister Koštunica since the beginning of the year, he:

• failed in an attempt to undermine his coalition's candidate in the first round of presidential elections
• failed in an attempt to sabotage the second round of presidential elections through a silent boycott
• used the Kosovo conflict as cover to sell off large parts of the domestic energy industry to foreign companies for a fraction of their value in a non-competitive process
• engaged a media and parliamentary campaign to shift the country from near-candidate status for the EU to enemy of the EU
• revived the mobilisation techniques of the late 1980s to provoke large-scale violence which included looting, arson and at least one unnecessary death
  
• failed in an effort to preserve his rule indefinitely by forcing a state of emergency
• failed in an effort to coordinate a silent coup with his allies in the Serbian Radical Party

It was probably the failure of this last effort that provoked Mr Koštunica's abrupt resignation. In contrast with every other party in Serbian politics, SRS believes that it can win an election and does not need to make deals with Koštunica. Koštunica knows that his party has poor chances in any election, but knows that he is incapable of governing as well.

Is the resignation of the government a crisis? No, it has needed to go for a while already, and if Mr Koštunica had any sense he would have resigned immediately after the presidential election. The new elections, however, do mean some uncertainty. There are a couple of possible positive outcomes, which would include:

• the orientation of the majority of citizens as expressed in the presidential elections could be confirmed
• Koštunica could be marginalised from political life and a government formed without his party, which at this point will be lucky to make it into the parliament at all

These are, of course, not the only possible outcomes. It is also possible that:

• a populist wave brings SRS to power
• Koštunica could finally go the direction he has been hinting for years, from his grey-black coalition with SRS, and complete the restoration of the Milošević regime

This is probably the outcome on which Koštunica is gambling. In doing so, he is assuming that SRS needs his support, and this is probably a bad assumption.

In the long term, Koštunica and his allies have no political future. Serbia is not a political scene in which several options are competing but a polarised society, as it has been for two decades. There are only two political options. The effort of politicians like Koštunica to stake out a "middle ground" between the two is hopeless from the start. One of these options is going to have to win. I am not willing to predict just yet which one it is likely to be.

Dok traje obnova

Photo from Danas: Simon Simonović brings a new window to the Slovenian embassy yesterday, a gift from the students of Belgrade.

Anticlimax of the day

This the sort of story that makes you raise one eyebrow briefly and then start thinking about something else.

"the exchange of commodities is evidently an act characterised by a total abstraction from use-value"

But can we really explain why the country is most likely worth more than a handful of chicharrones, while Velimir Ilić is worth considerably less?

Things that happen before and after a seminar on festivals

Dragan Klaić paid a visit home to Belgrade. He found there was a lot to see.

Samo Skvidži Slobodana spašava

There are all kinds of reasons (sanity among them) to ignore everything that happens at the inquest into the death of Princess Diana, which would have been a long-running media spectacle of conspiracy theories had the media themselves not lost interest. There is even more reason to dismiss what somebody who lacks the energy to go deeply into the alphabet to find a way of disguising his or her identity has to say. All the same, an unidentified "member of the British spy agency M16" who goes by the most nonintriguing name of "A" claimed that "there existed a plan" to murder an unnamed "radical individual" should this unnamed individual come to power in Serbia. As "A" explains the thinking of his alphabetic crew:

At that time there was concern that Milošević could be removed from power and that his place could be taken by a nationalist extremist, which would lead to even greater ethnic cleansing and a larger number of deaths, explained A.

Like you, I am not terribly impressed that there is a vague claim that a plan may have existed which was never approved or put into effect. But the foolish political calculation rings true, as a reminder that many political "thinkers" in Europe and elsewhere believed that their best hope lay with keeping Milošević in power as long as possible.

Assuming that there really was an "A" who was really a member of an intelligence agency and that something like this idea and its rationale were really discussed, it does, as does every other revelation about what gets discussed in intelligence agencies, puncture the mystical belief that spies are any smarter than your average mediocre political thinker or know anything worth knowing that anyone would be happy for them to tell.

Also, Đinđić shot himself

Where would we be without Press, relying only on Kurir for those pearls of investigative journalism?

Kao guske u ćuzi

We know a couple of things about the girls whose little looting adventure made them internet celebrities for one brief, greasy moment. We know that they hail from lovely Batajnica (but they already told the fellow with the camera that). We know that their names are Maja Trbojević and Jovana Petrović, and that they were arrested on Sunday. And we know that they are about to be charged with theft, a crime which carries a sentence of between one and eight years. This will give them the dubious distinction of being the only people to be charged with anything after a long night of vandalism, looting, physical attacks on police officers, arson and manslaughter. Congratulations to prosecutors on a job not done.

Police succeeded, after somebody else did their investigation for them, in finding evidence of their crime in their apartment three days later. And where were the forces of public order on the night when many more crimes than the pathetically small ones committed by these two girls were committed? Somewhere doing something other than their job, apparently.

And who is reponsible for the absence of the police? Formally they are under the command of the Interior ministry, the head of which, Dragan Jočić, has been in the hospital since 25 January after his Very Ministerial Automobile smacked into a doggie, severely injuring both His Ministricity and his driver (no word on the fate of the doggie, za razliku od njega ni kriv ni dužan). The deputy minister should be filling in but apparently is not. It seems rather that contrary to the law, on the night of 21 February the police were commanded directly by Aleksandar Nikitović -- not a public official at all, but rather chief of staff for prime minister Vojislav Koštunica, who was not authorised by the government to take over the role of the Interior minister in stead of the deputy minister.

Once you have finished holding your breaths waiting for charges to be filed related to the usurpation of power as a part of a conspiracy to undermine public order, please exhale deeply and go out for a nice drink.

Update: Before you head off to enjoy that drink, enjoy this commentary by Vedrana Rudan.

Update2: Here is another gaggle of heroes, no doubt defending the ancient monasteries and their lovely frescoes.

The lesser of two evils?

It seems that there is a tradition of unusual names in Meghalaya, and that they do not necessarily reflect any sort of ideological predispositions on the part of the families in which they are used. All the same, it might be difficult to choose between Adolf Lu Hitler-Marak and Frankenstein Momin.

Partition plus, I suppose. Or maybe minus.

There has been considerable discussion of partition as a possible resolution for the conflict over Kosovo, as well as speculation that this is the resolution that the present Serbian government (secretly) prefers. For my part, I do not care to express an opinion for or against -- let the politicians squabble over what real estate they want to claim until they exhaust themselves, I am interested in whether people will be permitted (ever) to live normally on any part of the planet to which any institution cares to give a name. But I will direct your attention to the most elaborately developed and argued advocacy of partition I have seen yet, offered (a bit to my surprise, I will admit) by Dejan Jović.

More nonsense about the template!

I am recreating the link list (look right) from the ground up. Please let me know if I have neglected a favourite blog, especially if it is yours!

Narodna kletva

Dabogda te hvalile Novosti posle besmislene smrti.

Nisi valjda luda da se stidiš

Today the world was eagerly awaiting the opportunity to hear Vojislav Koštunica say:

"The United States must annul its decision on the recognition of the fraudulent state on the territory of Serbia and allow the Security Council to affirm the force of Resolution 1244 which guarantees the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Serbia. That is the proper way to once again establish the force of the foundations of international law and the Charter of the United Nations in the Balkans."

Koštunica is, of course, in a position to make demands of more powerful countries as a result of his wisdom and moderation which have gained him the respect of the world, as well as his broad popularity which led to the outstanding result of his candidate in the presidential elections and the impressive degree of support his party enjoys in parliamentary elections, and which is indicated by the spontaneous outpourings of affection that greet him everywhere he goes. The only thing that can prevent the rest of the world from hearing any demand he might make loudly and clearly is their delighted sighs of anticipation.

Degeneracija u jednoj pokretnoj slici

For the sake of completeness, here is the most hate-filled of all of Thursday's speeches, by the film director Emir Kusturica. Thanks to Andras for the video:



Much like another figure associated with literary history and pointless wars, he seems to have a thing about rodents.

Why nobody writes to the general

Anyone who has ever had a child of theirs serving in the Canadian military might well shudder to see this: the speaker in this clip was a general in that army. He wants to appear to be a friend of people he is calling savages underneath his breath, who probably do not recognise his implicit claim that it is unreasonable to expect such people to control themselves. At one time this person was responsible for the lives and safety of a small group of young people and a very large group of civilians. Worse still, he was responsible for assuring compliance with international humanitarian law.



With friends like these there is really no need for enemies.

Sve crnja hronika

Blic reports that according "an unnamed source close to the investigation," police believe that they may have identified the person who died in the violence that followed the calls to violence by high-ranking officials on Thursday night. They have run a name, but considering that the person has a family, I will not until the conclusion is certain. The speculation is attached to an article suggesting that the absence of police to control the violence was deliberate.

Update: It now seems more or less certain that the victim was Zoran Vujović, a 21-year old student resident in Novi Sad.

Dno...

...dna.

Narodni ples

I have new footage of the speech by Mr Koštunica yesterday.

Today in the world of malicious idiots

Next month it will have been five years since Zoran Đinđić was murdered. Some people may or may not be aware of this, as indicated by the fact that they are still murdering him.

"Ko smo mi Srbi? Kakvo nam je zapravo ime?" -- V. Koštunica

All that the medical examiners know about the person who was burned to death in the attack on the US embassy yesterday is that it was a male between 17 and 22 years old. It is also known that there was no reason for anybody to be killed, but that is not a finding of the medical examiners.

Adventures in shopping

Totalna rasprodaja, bre.



Thanks to Milena for the video.

Menwhile in the media

Unsurprisingly, the reborn Hadži-Politika has found comfort in returning to its role as official hagiographer. Their Friday edition features headlines on "Serbia's answer" and people who "Came to follow the call of their heart." Glas gadosti has an entry for this year's award for the most vulgar leading story. Novosti is acting like Politika used to act, hiding the news at the end of the story.

Discussion at the Serbian cabinet

The daily paper Blic has carried a transcript of an exchange among Serbian government ministers on the behaviour of hooligans after the declaration of independence of Kosovo. They do not give a date, so I am not certain whether this is from after Sunday night rather than after last night (the number of injured police would suggest last night, however). My translation.

Velimir Ilić (minister for infastructure): They have caused us much greater damage than broken windows. Those people at B92 and other media had better be careful how they talk about those young people.

Snežana Marković (minister for youth and sport): You are the last person who should tell people how to behave. Everyone knows what you have been advocating.

Ilić: Madam, you have been in sports for two months, and I have been for twenty years. Be careful, the sportspeople will come to you.

Dragan Šutanovac (minister of defence): What sportspeople, what are you talking about? I will stand in front of those wimps if somebody has to. Now, why was the police instructed to allow the hooligans to go wild on the one hand, and on the other hand to protect public order? That just endangers the police.

Ilić: You cannot call them hooligans just because they broke some windows and injured a few police officers.

Šutanovac: To be precise - 53 of them.

Vojislav Koštunica (prime minister): Those people, hooligans as you call them, were just reacting to the violation of international law.

Šutanovac: Oh please, if they had not been organised they would not have known what to do. What defence of international law are you talking about?

My fear was that perhaps a decision had been made to allow a public outrage that would provide a pretext for declaring a state of emergency. But clearly the government is not united, which I suppose could have been guessed beforehand.

Presented without comment

Vojislav Koštunica speaking at the state-organised DSS-SRS promotion yesterday



Thanks to Andras for the video.

Update: There is somebody who feels affirmed by Koštunica, gle čudo.

Another night of vandalism and violence

The countermeeting at Ušće was once again a tremendous success. Maybe I got the time and place wrong there. On the other hand, maybe I did not.

Update: Now that the flags in front of the US, Canadian, Croatian and Turkish embassies have been burned, please send any books you would like burned to Nekažnjeni huligani, c/o Vojislav Koštunica.

Update2: Police appear to have protected the embassies of Bulgaria, Italy and the UK, as well as the studios of Radio B92 (B92 has added one of those scrolling text update strips, and on the radio Tatomir Toroman is doing some very fine reporting). On Kneza Miloša where three embassies were attacked, they waited until the attacks were carried out and then sprayed everyone with tear gas. Which goes just great with open flame, in case you were wondering.

Update3: Apparently on Slavija several enemy hamburgers and fried potatoes were attacked.

Update4: The spokesperson of the urgent medical center notes that most of the injured people coming their way are also heavily intoxicated with alcohol. Could an event like this following the large DSS-SRS promotional meeting be coincidental? Anybody recall the DSS-SRS discussions of a state of emergency?

Update5: I will be out for the evening, but I can bet that my friends will be on the job with reports and possibly video.

Vole i oni vas

Check it out -- a day off work, closed schools, free buses, and a state-sponsored meeting to be addressed by superstar democrats like Grobar and Koštunjavi. Remind you of anything?

Alien fantasies

So the proposal is that if I want to become a citizen of the country where I am living, I should be required to prove my worth to it. And would the UK care to prove its worth to me?

Quote of the decade

"There is not a bit of difference between the statements by Koštunica and Tadić yesterday and the policy of SPS in the nineties"

--Ivica Dačić, president of SPS

Čega se pametan stidi time se budala ponosi

How to persuade the people in Kosovo that they really want a future with Serbia: break windows at one embassy, set fires at another, and sing folksongs that touch the heart like "Ubi, zakolji, da Šiptar ne postoji" (translation: "kill, slaughter, so the [insulting name for] Albanian will not exist). Ama baš ste neodoljivi.

Update: Viktor and Bganon suspect that the mildness of the police may not simply be a consequence of their čokolino-based diet.

Cordial if perhaps tepid welcome to new borned country

Not many people will have been surprised by Kosovo's declaration of independence today. Whatever futile and symbolic measures may be taken to appear as though it is being prevented, there has not been a chance since 1999 that there would be any other outcome (a few drunken ultrarightists on the street or press statements by tiny Bosnian groups will not change anything either). Some people will undoubtedly be celebrating the event, but it will take serious and committed work to assure that the new situation means something more than jobs for a new crowd of politicians. I am neither thrilled nor outraged, but rather think that what matters most is how the problems that have been left from the past and the new ones that are going to be generated are going to be addressed. Kosovo and Serbia are both now states, and each one has the opportunity now to show that it has the capacity to behave like a responsible one.

What the Kosovo government has to do is demonstrate its commitment to inclusion and the rule of law, assure freedom of movement and full legal protection for everybody living in the state, and build friendly and functional relationships with all of the states in the region. An independent state has obligations that are greater than the obligations of Unmikistan, which could always be transferred elsewhere.

The Serbian government has to begin to take seriously the desires of the Serb residents of Kosovo, not just to posture in their name. That means engaging with the new state as equals to build a regime of cooperation and protection. The need to make gestures of rejection is a need related to publicity, and it should be indulged for a while. But behind the scenes, somebody had better be generating ways to protect the interests of citizens.

For the last eighteen years, one state or parastate more or less in the Balkans has been par for the course. One that means something good for the people who live in and around it, that would be something.

Note: I know that at least some of you who read this will want to disagree with me vehemently in the comments (you are welcome to agree too, of course). Price of commenting -- give me advice on how to fix the comments visibility problem!